Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1901 UTC 18/11/2025 Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 9.7S Longitude: 131.6E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: east northeast (067 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 993 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 19/0000: 9.5S 131.9E: 030 (060): 045 (085): 990 +12: 19/0600: 9.3S 132.2E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 990 +18: 19/1200: 9.2S 132.5E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 986 +24: 19/1800: 9.2S 132.8E: 055 (105): 055 (100): 983 +36: 20/0600: 9.3S 133.2E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 979 +48: 20/1800: 9.8S 133.1E: 105 (190): 060 (110): 979 +60: 21/0600: 10.5S 132.7E: 120 (225): 060 (110): 979 +72: 21/1800: 11.1S 132.1E: 130 (240): 060 (110): 980 +96: 22/1800: 12.2S 130.4E: 155 (285): 050 (095): 987 +120: 23/1800: 13.1S 128.7E: 180 (330): 050 (095): 987 REMARKS: Tropical Low 02U has intensified to become Tropical Cyclone Fina. It is being analysed as a small system with gale radii less than 60 nautical miles. Position is based on animated IR imagery. Intensity 40 knots. Dvorak: FT/CI = 3.0 based on MET. DT was difficult to assign as there is no clear banding and it is too early to use EMBD centre pattern. A shear analysis would give DT of at least 3.0. Final intensity estimate is weighted to recent objective guidance (1-min winds): SATCON 47 knots, ADT 53 knots, AiDT 42 knots, DPRINT 47 knots DMINT 45 knots. Fina is a small system and gales are estimated to only extend 50nm from the centre. Broadscale influences are generally favourable for development: High SSTs 30-31C; wind shear is 10-15kn from the northeast (12Z CIMSS analysis); upper outflow is strong; abundant low-midlevel moisture (TPW) which would suggest intensification is supported in the short term. Being a small system, Fina may fluctuate in intensity and be quick to intensify but also weaken quickly too. The intensity is capped at 60kn (category 2) as there is uncertainty in the role of potentially increasing northerly shear from Friday with some dry air impacts possibly weakening the system prior to any impact of the Top End coast. Should the shear remain low to moderate, the system may remain pouched in moist air. Given these uncertainties, there remains a chance it reaches category 3. Consensus of NWP model tracks has the system moving slowly towards the NE for next 36 h before recurving around to the south later Thursday and then taking a southwest track back towards the northern coastline of the NT. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0130 UTC. [close]