Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1259 UTC 05/03/2026 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 29U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 16.2S Longitude: 147.0E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (258 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 05/1800: 16.4S 146.6E: 045 (080): 035 (065): 994 +12: 06/0000: 17.0S 146.4E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 994 +18: 06/0600: 18.0S 145.6E: 060 (115): 030 (055): 999 +24: 06/1200: 18.8S 144.8E: 070 (130): 025 (045): 1002 +36: 07/0000: 20.3S 143.4E: 110 (200): 025 (045): 1001 +48: 07/1200: 21.1S 142.8E: 145 (265): 020 (035): 1002 +60: 08/0000: 22.1S 143.8E: 150 (280): 020 (035): 1003 +72: 08/1200: None None: None (None): None (None): None +96: 09/1200: None None: None (None): None (None): None +120: 10/1200: None None: None (None): None (None): None REMARKS: Tropical Low 29U unlikely to develop prior to crossing the coast. There is low confidence in the position due to there being no visible imagery, no microwave imagery, radar is not helpful and the cloud signature is not clear. Dvorak analysis is FT/CI of 1.0/1.5 based on MET/PAT, and holding CI 0.5 higher while weakening. Dvorak is not considered a good indicator of true intensity for the current situation. Objective intensity estimates at 1100 UTC (1 minute means): ADT 34 kn, AiDT 33 kn, D-PRINT 32 kn, DMINT (0902 UTC) 27 kn. Intensity has been set to 35 knots with gales in the eastern quadrants. CIMSS upper wind analysis has persisted with easterly low to high level shear of around 10 knots during Thursday. The system however is still showing clear signs of being adversely impacted by wind shear with the deep convection displaced to the west of the low level centre. Guidance indicates mid-level shear is present, with the 500hPa circulation displaced to the north of the low level one. The low level structure remains elongated and numerical guidance generally maintains this. Other environmental factors are relatively favourable, with SSTs high at 29-30C and good low level forcing from the southeasterlies and monsoonal westerlies, but even with the shear diminishing, the system would take some time to develop into a tropical cyclone from its current disorganised state and the likelihood of it becoming a tropical cyclone prior to crossing the Queensland coast is low. A mid-level ridge extending from mainland Australia into the western Coral Sea is expected to be the main steering influence, and there is broad agreement across all numerical guidance on a southwesterly track, with most guidance suggesting landfall on the northeast Queensland coast on Friday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies. [close]