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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0109 UTC 05/01/2026 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 11U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 11.0S Longitude: 97.4E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south southeast (147 deg) Speed of Movement: 14 knots (25 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 05/0600: 12.2S 97.5E: 030 (060): 035 (065): 998 +12: 05/1200: 13.3S 97.3E: 040 (075): 040 (075): 997 +18: 05/1800: 14.2S 96.8E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 995 +24: 06/0000: 14.9S 96.3E: 055 (105): 050 (095): 992 +36: 06/1200: 16.0S 94.9E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 985 +48: 07/0000: 16.6S 93.2E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 985 +60: 07/1200: 16.9S 91.4E: 100 (180): 045 (085): 995 +72: 08/0000: 16.7S 89.5E: 115 (210): 035 (065): 1000 +96: 09/0000: 16.2S 85.2E: 160 (295): 030 (055): 1004 +120: 10/0000: None None: None (None): None (None): None REMARKS: Dvorak analysis yields DT=3.0 using a curved band pattern (0.6-0.7 wrap). MET is 3 based on a D+ 24-hour trend, PT is 3.0 with FT/CI=3.0. Objective guidance at 2300 UTC (1-minute mean) has started with ADT 43 knots, AiDT 35 knots, DPRINT 30 knots, DMINT (1912UTC) 30 knots and SATCON unavailable. Intensity is set at 35 knots with gales confined to the northeast and southeast quadrants. The structure has improved markedly in the last 24 hours with the low level centre now located under deep convection. The environment is broadly favourable with warm SSTs, abundant moisture, good upper outflow to the south and deep vertical wind shear of around 15 knots from the NE. Tropical Low 11U is forecast to continue to intensify and should develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours. The passage of an upper trough to the south of the system during Tuesday will further enhance upper support and 11U is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 60 knots late Tuesday or early Wednesday with a small chance it could reach hurricane force. By Wednesday another approaching upper trough in the central Indian Ocean is forecast to increase shear and this combined with the ingestion of dry air into the core of 11U should weaken the system quickly. Tropical Low 11U is currently being steered southwards as it transitions from the monsoon being the dominant steering force to the mid-level ridge to the east becoming the main steering influence. The system is forecast to move generally southwards for the next 24 hours and is expected to pass to the east of the Cocos Islands during Monday. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement in a southwards motion with a turn to the southwest during late Monday or early Tuesday. 11U should then move westwards and be out of the Australian Region by late Wednesday or early Thursday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0730 UTC. [close]

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0109 UTC 05/01/2026
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 97.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (147 deg)
Speed of Movement: 14 knots (25 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 05/0600: 12.2S 97.5E: 030 (060): 035 (065): 998
+12: 05/1200: 13.3S 97.3E: 040 (075): 040 (075): 997
+18: 05/1800: 14.2S 96.8E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 995
+24: 06/0000: 14.9S 96.3E: 055 (105): 050 (095): 992
+36: 06/1200: 16.0S 94.9E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 985
+48: 07/0000: 16.6S 93.2E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 985
+60: 07/1200: 16.9S 91.4E: 100 (180): 045 (085): 995
+72: 08/0000: 16.7S 89.5E: 115 (210): 035 (065): 1000
+96: 09/0000: 16.2S 85.2E: 160 (295): 030 (055): 1004
+120: 10/0000: None None: None (None): None (None): None

REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis yields DT=3.0 using a curved band pattern (0.6-0.7 wrap). MET is 3 based on a D+ 24-hour trend, PT is 3.0 with FT/CI=3.0. Objective guidance at 2300 UTC (1-minute mean) has started with ADT 43 knots, AiDT 35 knots, DPRINT 30 knots, DMINT (1912UTC) 30 knots and SATCON unavailable. Intensity is set at 35 knots with gales confined to the northeast and southeast quadrants. The structure has improved markedly in the last 24 hours with the low level centre now located under deep convection. The environment is broadly favourable with warm SSTs, abundant moisture, good upper outflow to the south and deep vertical wind shear of around 15 knots from the NE. Tropical Low 11U is forecast to continue to intensify and should develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours. The passage of an upper trough to the south of the system during Tuesday will further enhance upper support and 11U is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 60 knots late Tuesday or early Wednesday with a small chance it could reach hurricane force. By Wednesday another approaching upper trough in the central Indian Ocean is forecast to increase shear and this combined with the ingestion of dry air into the core of 11U should weaken the system quickly. Tropical Low 11U is currently being steered southwards as it transitions from the monsoon being the dominant steering force to the mid-level ridge to the east becoming the main steering influence. The system is forecast to move generally southwards for the next 24 hours and is expected to pass to the east of the Cocos Islands during Monday. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement in a southwards motion with a turn to the southwest during late Monday or early Tuesday. 11U should then move westwards and be out of the Australian Region by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0730 UTC.

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