Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0648 UTC 18/04/2025 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol Identifier: 29U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.8S Longitude: 124.4E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: east southeast (103 deg) Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 1000 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 10 nm (20 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (None km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W2.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 18/1200: 16.0S 125.3E: 035 (070): 030 (055): 1000 +12: 18/1800: 16.1S 125.9E: 045 (085): 025 (045): 1001 +18: 19/0000: 16.3S 126.4E: 055 (100): 025 (045): 1003 +24: 19/0600: 16.4S 126.8E: 060 (110): 020 (035): 1003 +36: 19/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None +48: 20/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None +60: 20/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None +72: 21/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None +96: 22/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None +120: 23/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol has crossed the coast south of Kuri Bay and weakened below tropical cyclone intensity. The system made landfall just south of Kuri Bay. The position is supported by recent land observations and animated satellite imagery, with moderate confidence. Deep convection has struggle to persist in southern quadrants. Dvorak analysis used a curved band pattern of around 0.2 giving DT 2.0, acknowledging the small nature of the system. MET is 3.0 with a W+ 24 hour trend, PAT is 2.5. FT based on DT 2.0, CI is 2.5. Objective estimates (1-minute average) at 0500 UTC: ADT 47 kn, AiDT 56 kn, DPRINT 32 kn. There was an ASCAT-C pass near 0046UTC that indicated gales in the southern quadrans. Intensity is set at 35 knots for the southern quadrants of the system. Errol no longer meets the Australian definition of a tropical cyclone, which requires gales in at least three quadrants. The remnants of Errol are forecast to continue moving east southeast into the inland central Kimberley during Saturday. The system will continue to weaken in both structure and intensity due to land interaction. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system. [close]