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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1312 UTC 27/12/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 07U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 12.4S Longitude: 96.3E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: southeast (136 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 1000 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 27/1800: 13.0S 96.6E: 040 (075): 030 (055): 1001 +12: 28/0000: 13.6S 96.7E: 050 (090): 030 (055): 1001 +18: 28/0600: 14.2S 96.8E: 055 (105): 030 (055): 1001 +24: 28/1200: 14.6S 96.8E: 060 (115): 030 (055): 1000 +36: 29/0000: 15.2S 96.8E: 080 (145): 030 (055): 1000 +48: 29/1200: 15.5S 96.2E: 095 (175): 030 (055): 1000 +60: 30/0000: 15.8S 94.9E: 115 (215): 030 (055): 1001 +72: 30/1200: 16.0S 93.0E: 130 (240): 030 (055): 1001 +96: 31/1200: 16.6S 88.3E: 155 (285): 025 (045): 1004 +120: 01/1200: None None: None (None): None (None): None REMARKS: Tropical low 07U has failed to develop and is starting to weaken. The system has been moving southeast over the last 6 hours, with its position estimated from a 0921 UTC SSMIS pass and observations at Cocos Island Airport. A shear pattern results in a DT of 1.0, however this is tenuous given that there is only a small amount of deep convection left. The MET is 1.0, based on a W- 24-hour trend, with PAT adjusted to 1.5. Final intensity (FT) is set at 1.5, with CI held at 2.0. Objective guidance provides the following estimates: ADT 34 knots, AiDT 32 knots, DPRINT 27 knots, DMINT 27 knots, and SATCON 37 knots (all 1-minute winds). ASCAT data from 0243 UTC detected a small area of 35 knot winds in the southwest quadrant, but the system has since weakened, and an AMSR2 pass at 0707 UTC suggested maximum winds were 30 knots. The system intensity is estimated at 30 knots. With the lack of gale force winds around the centre, lack of deep convection and strong ENE wind shear, there is a Very Low chance that 07U will develop into a tropical cyclone. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system. [close]

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1312 UTC 27/12/2024
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 96.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (136 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 27/1800: 13.0S 96.6E: 040 (075): 030 (055): 1001
+12: 28/0000: 13.6S 96.7E: 050 (090): 030 (055): 1001
+18: 28/0600: 14.2S 96.8E: 055 (105): 030 (055): 1001
+24: 28/1200: 14.6S 96.8E: 060 (115): 030 (055): 1000
+36: 29/0000: 15.2S 96.8E: 080 (145): 030 (055): 1000
+48: 29/1200: 15.5S 96.2E: 095 (175): 030 (055): 1000
+60: 30/0000: 15.8S 94.9E: 115 (215): 030 (055): 1001
+72: 30/1200: 16.0S 93.0E: 130 (240): 030 (055): 1001
+96: 31/1200: 16.6S 88.3E: 155 (285): 025 (045): 1004
+120: 01/1200: None None: None (None): None (None): None

REMARKS:
Tropical low 07U has failed to develop and is starting to weaken. The system has been moving southeast over the last 6 hours, with its position estimated from a 0921 UTC SSMIS pass and observations at Cocos Island Airport. A shear pattern results in a DT of 1.0, however this is tenuous given that there is only a small amount of deep convection left. The MET is 1.0, based on a W- 24-hour trend, with PAT adjusted to 1.5. Final intensity (FT) is set at 1.5, with CI held at 2.0. Objective guidance provides the following estimates: ADT 34 knots, AiDT 32 knots, DPRINT 27 knots, DMINT 27 knots, and SATCON 37 knots (all 1-minute winds). ASCAT data from 0243 UTC detected a small area of 35 knot winds in the southwest quadrant, but the system has since weakened, and an AMSR2 pass at 0707 UTC suggested maximum winds were 30 knots. The system intensity is estimated at 30 knots. With the lack of gale force winds around the centre, lack of deep convection and strong ENE wind shear, there is a Very Low chance that 07U will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.

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